Introduction
The war in Ukraine as vector for US war against Russia started in earnest in 2014, with the US coup against the democratically elected government of Kiev. The US itself has not denied the fateful phone call intercept of State Department capo Victoria Nuland, planning the coup with the US ambassador Pyatt in February 2014.
For some reason, Russia did not give the President, Victor Yanukovych, the support he needed. As a result, an extreme Russophobic regime, with Ukrainian Nazi descendants of Stepan Bandera, came to power. In WWII, their grandparents had conducted serious atrocities and massacres. They started over again following the coup.
It’s a mystery why Russia didn’t support the President to crush this obvious, externally supported armed uprising. The result has been an ongoing war against ethnic Russians in Eastern Ukraine, as well as Crimea. With an ethnic cleansing attack planned and starting in February, 2022, Russia finally intervened.
Here we are 12 years after the coup, and 4 years after what Russia calls a Special Military Operation. Recently Putin’s spokesman, Dmitri Peskov finally call this by its true name— War.
In the face of multiple Western escalations, supplying lethal weapons, to sophisticated artillery, to tanks, to rockets, to drones inside Ukraine, now these attacks are clearly orchestrated by, funded, equipped by the US and NATO. So the question arises: What should Russia do about it?
What the Blogosphere, Both Western and Russian, Has to Say
I won’t mention any names because I don’t want to confuse personalities with arguments.
The two main bones of contention are these:
Russia is winning a war of attrition
It is gradually weakening and destroying the Ukrainian and Western militiary ability and willingness to fight. The initial enthusiasm of Ukrainian men has waned. Many of the most fanatical have been killed or maimed. I personally have met a number of Ukrainian men who could fight but left to avoid getting sent to the meat grinder.
For that matter, many young Russian men have also left, but it appears that patriotc fervor and high pay have attracted hundreds of thousands of young Russian men to join up to fight. Ukraine has resorted to hiring foreign mercenaries, which are not as effective.
Ukraine is losing more and more territory, the Black Sea ports are now cut off for Ukraine, and Russia is headed for control of all of Ukraine up to Odessa, Kharkov, Sumi and the Dnieper River
Russia is gradually losing
The West insisted it would not escalate by sending first lethal weapons, then anti tank missiles, then tanks, then artillery, then fighter jets, and now massive drone production and missiles designed to attack Russia. These have resulted in rather significant damage to energy and civilian infrastructure. However, cities like Sevastopol in Crimea, do not look now like it did in 1944.
Personal contact says the situation is getting worse, but certainly not like WWII.
courtesy: https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=1124823870980737&set=the-liberation-of-sevastopol-crimea-may-1944a-soviet-t3476-model-1943-tank-in-le
Sevastopol Yesterday: Photo copyright Ria Novosti Crimea. Air alert cancelled
https://crimea.ria.ru/20260724/v-sevastopole-otmenili-vozdushnuyu-trevogu-1157890434.html
Europe is gradually building up its military industrial complex, and Russia is getting more and more surrounded. Over time, its territorial gains will become a ‘Pyrrhic Victory’, winning the battle but losing the war.
So, the question people both Westerners who support Russia, as well as Russian living there ask is What to Do?
Four Choices
My reading and observation of various opinions comes down to 4 choices facing Russia’s response. The first is to simply continue. Russia is gaining more territory, the Kiev regime is becoming more and more unstable, given the removal of Commander Syrsky and the popular defense minister recently. Expect regime collapse, followed by rapid advance of Russia to take over all of Novorossiya up to the Dnieper River, the entire Black Sea coast, the capture of Kharkov and Sumi. This theory was just advanced in my recent talk with a friend in Ukraine.
On the other hand, there are other choices to send a message to the Collective West, to “back off..or else”.
Sergei Karaganov, a Russian theorist and academic suggests using a demonstration strike by the powerful Oreshnik missile. If Nato does not get the message, this missile could be aimed at targets within Nato countries, the rationale being that they are in fact belligerents, since their missiles, financial support, military advice make them so. Direct retaliation is an option
If that does not work, use tactical nuclear missiles to take out strategic targets either in Ukraine or in Europe.
Make use of the ‘Chechen option’. Since the leadership of Ukraine constitutes a terror organization, Russia could decapitate the leaders of Ukraine, who were installed by the Americans and British anyway. Russia defeated the Chechen insurgency, which was also a CIA project to break up Russia, by killing its leaders.
Conclusion
Brian Berletic, a long time perceptive geopolitical and military analyst sees the Ukraine war as not simply a war of the US against Russia, but a war to maintain its 500 year domination and prevention of a multipolar world, rather than the Western Colonial war which sapped the energy and effort of the 88% of the non Western population.
The West has been ruthless and relentless. Negotiations only allow the West to prepare for more attacks. Agreements get trashed.
Three possible resolutions:
The West’s own internal contradictions, failing societies, massive unpayable debts cause an internal collapse
The rest of the world, led by China, Russia, Iran and other independent sovereign countries unite to isolate and quarantine the West, while they go forward
A final confrontation, total war, most likely ending in nuclear war obliterates human civilization
In any case, in my opinion, we are in for a rough ride.
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