Again, Is a Peaceful Resolution Possible in Ukraine?
Two Credible Observers
Three Views on Current Ukraine Conflict
Two observers, both formerly with the CIA who resigned, are Larry Johnson and Ray McGovern. What I like to advocate is that Truth is not necessarily a set in stone “Monument”, but more a mosaic of disparate ‘micro facts’ which form an overall tapestry, which makes more sense when seen from an observable distance.
So here are two interviews I recommend watching, and I’ll make a few comments on each of them. Larry is joined by Alastair Crooke, a veteran British diplomat.
Ray and Glenn, an excellent political historian and analyst in his own right, both discuss the deeply ingrained hatred and suspicion of Russia and the former Soviet Union. Neither of them share that psychological mindset, dare I say, neurotic perception.
Ray was a CIA analyst, who was present at the historic Anti Ballistic Missile Treaty in Moscow in, I think, 1972. He has the benefit of over 50 years of perspective. He has a ‘hopeful’ attitude towards Trump’s desire to resolve the Ukraine War, recognizing the considerable institutional and cultural inertia against Russia.
Here are my comments:
Lost in this discussion is that the pendulum ALWAYS swings towards hostility to Russia. That is because Western civilization so to speak, is obsessed with world domination, and Russia has always stood in the way.
And it has a lot of resources which the West needs to collateralize its debt based banking system.
Russia was our 'friend' during WWII to stop the Nazis. Until the Nazis were defeated. And immediately Churchill was planning to attack the USSR, and Truman brandished the atomic bomb. JFK tried to end the Cold War and was killed for it. Nixon for strategic reasons, did the ABM treaty. Bush II ditched it. Reagan under pressure from civil society negotiated the INF treaty. And Clinton trashed Russia after the USSR disbanded. Trump trashed the INF treaty.
Thus, hostility towards Russia has always been initiated by the West. It was the example of Socialism that Capitalist West saw as a threat, but it's deeper than that. It's the West's obsession with domination which will always result in betrayal of Russia. If Russia succumbs to naivete, which has been rampant in Russian society ever since they looked to Europe and France as the example to follow, it will be destroyed by the West.
On the West’s Perception of Putin as Dictator:
Rather than being a dictator, Putin has to juggle a number of different constituencies in Russia: The Russian Orthodox Church, the Communists, the Oligarchs, the liberals, and even the traditionalist/monarchist factions.
He is the consensus leader, whom the vast majority of Russians, despite their own ideological differences, support. Most people don't remember that it was not Putin who initiated the SMO.
The Communists put forth the resolution in the Duma in February, 2022—after 8 years of shelling by Kiev, and clear signs of impending ethnic cleaning operation, to finally recognize the Donbass republics as independent of Ukraine, so that Russia could invoke their right to ask Russia to intervene on their behalf. That was not Putin's Dictat, it was a resolution in the Duma, which finally pushed him and the security council to act.
Larry Johnson and Alastair Crooke
Next, Larry Johnson, also formerly CIA, spoke with veteran British diplomat, Alastair Crooke, both of whom bring wisdom and clarity to the discussion, which is sorely lacking in the Mainstream Media. The first part of the show talks about Iran’s realistic understanding that doing a deal with the West would result in Iran going the way of Libya, which voluntarily gave up its nuclear development program. The West invaded in 2011 on false pretenses, disemboweled its leader, and the country has been in chaos ever since.
Starting at about 23 minutes, Crooke talks about US Russia relations. And since I just returned from a one month trip to Russia, I found this part especially pertinent.
In earlier trips, I found considerable sentiment within Russia, especially younger Russians for pro Western views. But as Alastair points out, the sentiment has changed.
It’s not just about the recognition by most Russians, that there is irreconcilable Western hostility towards Russia as a civilization, that drives Russian thinking.
He even points out how the Communists are gaining more following. The Communists have correctly identified the problem all along, since the stolen election of 1996. Here is a ‘cleaned up’ portion of Crooke’s transcript:
Overall, I think the mood has shifted. Before, one could talk about pressure on Putin from the doomsters in the the Russian language channels and others saying he isn't doing enough he, needs to be tougher.
All gone because everyone has come to a consensus— even the communist party were there and those even the liberals have had to come to this they everyone understands that, if there was a deal now— if Putin agreed a deal— we will have to pay in blood for the next war.
It would be a waste of all those who've given their lives now they would be lost with no purpose because in 3, 4, 5 years the west on a ceasefire on a deal would come back and we would have to lose more blood in the next round of them.
So there's no pressure on Trump or on Putin because they all understand:
Putin knows that. He understands it completely and what he's doing is he's playing chess with the American psyche. He knows how not to explode the American psyche. Lindsey Graham saying the barbarity —they deserve these sanctions they deserve it [Graham bragged about spending money in Ukraine to kill Russians, and he accuses Russians of barbarity—Ed]. You know you have to see it in the long term what's happened. I mean you know Russia, so St. Petersburg you know suffered hugely during the [900 days in WWII when a million Russians died in the] siege.
Then went through communism, pull themselves up by the bootstraps out of the communist period, only to go into the the shock therapy economic sector visited by the Harvard boys which reduced many of them, a lot of middle class professional people reduced them to begging on the streets, to selling their libraries and selling their children even in some cases.
The mortality rate went up, infant mortality went skyrocketing and as soon as they start to recover and come through this, the west wants a new war against them the Germans and worst of all the Germans are at the front screaming for war and war to come and to prepare for war against Russia.
[Russians] are angry now. America's missed the boat. A deal [may be] there, it's not completely ruled out but only on Russian terms.
My comment: One of the most striking experiences I have had talking with some Russians is that, even though our sources of information have been completely different, we agree on objective historical facts and understand the crisis in US/Russia relations just as Crooke describes here. I also notice a similar shift in mood.
Russia was invaded in 1941 and lost 27 million people, 1 million in St. Peterburg alone due to cold and starvation by the Nazis.
In 2022, a new invasion by NATO backed Ukraine forces against eastern Ukrainians was preempted by Russia, which prevented a catastrophic replay of June, 1941. And the Collective West gnashed its teeth because Russia has foiled its barbaric plan.
A fair amount of Russians who refuse to see the situation have left Russia. And those that stay say, “Good riddance”.
Conclusion
What I find striking again and again, that despite ideological differences, people of different backgrounds agree. I come from a position opposing imperialism and state sponsored brutality, aka fascism.
Johnson and McGovern are both long term US government functionaries.
Yet, these two Americans as well as Russians I spoke with in Russia are in general agreement on the causes of the Ukraine conflict, and its probable necessary resolution.
The ultimate antidote to endless wars: Yankee, Go Home.